Patrick Nill, a trader from Reutlingen, Germany, is a two-time winner of the World Cup Trading Championship, which he describes as the oldest and most widely followed trading competition in the world. He has finished in the leaderboard's top ranks for six consecutive years and has reached the podium 12 times.

In an interview with World Class Edge host Andrea, Nill described his background, his trading method, his risk management, and the worst trade of his career.

Background

Nill worked as a bookbinder and ran his family company, often working 16-hour days. In 2018, he sold the business to trade full-time. His family doubted the decision, and a friend called trading gambling. One year later, he appeared on the World Cup leaderboards.

When he began, Nill wanted to trade all day and take 20 to 50 trades per session, in the style of a scalper. He found the approach too demanding. He spent the entire day under pressure, and his results were weaker. He reduced his activity to one or two trades per day, entering only when a setup met his criteria. He now spends about one hour in the morning analyzing the market and placing trades, after which the trading day is complete.

Nill states that he is not suited to scalping. He takes one to three minutes to make decisions, and he finds decisions within seconds too difficult.

Trading Method

Nill's analysis combines market profile, volume-based directional analysis, and horizontal price zones. His process follows four steps:

1. Assess the market profile and volume. He identifies value areas and the overall direction.
2. Draw support and resistance zones.
3. Identify PBD patterns. He marks the PBD structures within the zones.
4. Enter when the signals align. A trade requires the market profile, the zones, and the PBD to confirm each other.

Nill uses two timeframes. He analyzes the 4-hour chart for the broader picture and trades on the 15-minute chart.

The PBD Pattern

Nill describes the PBD as a simple method. A strong directional push is followed by a trading range. The trader waits for price to break out of the range. The trader then enters in the direction of the break to follow the trend, or against it to trade a reversal.

Nill prefers counter-trend trades. He waits for the price to move in the opposite direction before entering. He defines a clear take-profit level and a clear stop-loss level before each trade.

Positions are typically held from 4 hours to 5 days.

Risk-Reward and Win Rate

Nill's preference depends on the account type:

• Championship accounts: He prefers a high win rate. Because championship returns are driven by risk, he aims to avoid consecutive losses. He closes championship trades in the evening to avoid overnight risk, which results in smaller positions.
• Private accounts: He prefers a high risk-reward ratio, because larger reward targets can generate more profit per trade.

Risk Per Trade and Drawdown

Nill risks about 0.2% of capital per trade in his private accounts. In the championship, he risks 2% to 3% per trade. He reports that he has tolerated drawdowns of 20% to 30%. In 2026, his drawdown reached approximately 50%, due to the oil trade described below.

Market Focus

Nill was primarily an oil trader before 2026. After the outbreak of the war, he stopped trading oil and shifted to the DAX index. He states that the trading ranges differ significantly:

• Oil: The average daily range was $2 to$3. Nill could assess whether prices were cheap or expensive relative to that range.
• DAX: The index can move by thousands of points in a day and is more volatile.

Nill reports that the trading conditions during the war were easier to manage. Reactions to public statements, including those from Donald Trump, often reversed, and Nill traded those reversals in the opposite direction. He now plans to return to oil trading, noting that oil signals are clearer and less prone to false breakouts. He also cites gold and gas as alternative markets he could trade if his setups do not appear in the DAX.

Worst Trade

Nill's worst trade occurred in 2026. He held a short oil position over the weekend when the war began. The market opened on Monday with a gap of 700 to 900 points, and it moved another 100 points against him before he exited. He describes the position as small, but the loss was large relative to his account and required a long recovery.

Nill did not identify a single best trade. He noted that his individual trades are generally small.

Time Commitment

Nill's trading time depends on his location. He trades three to four hours per day at home and about one hour when traveling. He trades approximately 150 days per year. He describes his activity as part-time and states that he trades only when his setups appear. He does not trade every day.

He notes that a trader does not need to be in front of the screen constantly to be successful.

Psychology and Responsibility

Nill's financial independence changed his approach to trading. He sold his company before he began trading, so he did not depend on trading income for living expenses. He has other business projects, which he says reduces the pressure of trading results.

Nill reports that becoming a father changed his trading behavior. He became more anxious after losses and took less risk. He describes this change as a new sense of responsibility. He says a friend in Dubai, Nico, reported a similar change after becoming a father, and that he could not identify a specific cause.

Changes in the Competition

Nill states that the competition has changed. Earlier years featured the same leading traders throughout the year. More recently, participants have appeared with large returns over a single day that were not sustained. He describes greater visibility and more participants, so a top finish now requires a higher percentage return.

Team and Location

Nill trades with partners Tom and Serge. He describes Serge as a source of input on entry timing. Nill sometimes asks Serge whether to wait a few minutes before entering a trade, but he does not use footprint charts, order books, or depth-of-market data. The team has relocated from Germany to Cyprus, where they trade from a trading floor in Larnaca. Nill lives outside the city and travels frequently. The partners now operate more independently and spend less time together because of their educational work.

Masterclass

Nill recorded a masterclass for World Class Edge. It covers the structure of PBD setups and explains when to trade and when not to trade. It also reviews selected trades from the championship, with commentary on the reasoning behind each trade.