Analysis by Peter Zeihan, recorded October 30. The situation is developing rapidly.

El Salvador's Security Policy

El Salvador has been partly stabilized and partly fragile, a pattern common across Central America. Zeihan attributes much of this trajectory to the current president, Nayib Bukele. Bukele is more authoritarian than any Salvadoran leader since the military juntas of the 1980s. He has adopted a zero-tolerance approach to crime, and his government has built the largest prison in the Western Hemisphere. A couple of percent of the population is held there. Crime levels have fallen. Whether that outcome justifies the cost depends on each observer's political views.

Haiti's Historical Constraints

Haiti was the first country in the Western Hemisphere to criminalize slavery. Other slaveholding states in the hemisphere responded with hostility, and Haiti faced isolation from the start of its independence in the 1800s. The United States in particular excluded Haiti from trade and diplomatic engagement. In the twentieth century, Haiti failed to develop economically. Deforestation has been so severe that the country lacks the timber needed to build boats, which limits maritime migration. Haiti has poor relations with most countries. Its governments have been deeply corrupt, and when no functioning government exists, gangs control the territory.

Zeihan notes that American administrations have intervened in Haiti repeatedly over the past 150 years to impose order. In his assessment, these interventions typically ended within a short period as the outcomes proved unsatisfactory.

Current Situation in Haiti

The United Nations, at the request of the United States, operates a mission in Haiti to contain gang violence. The United States has no military forces in Haiti. Apart from its embassy, it has no presence in the country, which leaves a significant intelligence gap, according to Zeihan.

During the mission, gangs attacked one of its units and kidnapped four members who were Salvadoran nationals. In response, Bukele deployed troops to Haiti to recover them. Before the Salvadoran troops arrived, the gang returned four bodies to El Salvador. The bodies did not belong to the kidnapped personnel. One of them was a child.

Military Capacity and Logistics

El Salvador lacks significant military capability and cannot fully control its own territory. The United States military transported the Salvadoran troops to Haiti. The Trump administration also provides the full logistical support chain for the deployment.

Zeihan describes the operation as follows:

• Approximately 2,000 Salvadoran soldiers are deployed in Haiti.
• U.S. military assets support their movement around Port-au-Prince and surrounding areas as they search for the kidnapped personnel.
• Extraction depends on U.S. logistical support.

Assessment of Risks

Zeihan states that he supports the operation's objective of recovering the kidnapped personnel, but he assesses the risk of failure as high. His concerns include:

• Haiti's security environment, which he describes as highly unstable.
• The Salvadoran military's limited experience in complex operations.
• The possibility that, if the soldiers become isolated, any disruption in reaching an extraction point where U.S. forces can evacuate them could produce heavy casualties in a short period.

He characterizes the deployment as an example of a leader overreaching and placing forces in a disastrous situation.