The wave of mass layoffs in the Russian IT market is linked to the 2026 crisis. Its causes include AI-driven workforce optimization, the relocation of companies to other countries due to sanctions against the Russian Federation, and the general economic situation in the country.

The author analyzed more than 200 cases of mass layoffs and compiled a list of ten signs that may indicate a forthcoming dismissal. Recognizing these signals early allows employees to prepare for a possible reduction.

Sign 1: Mass Dismissals Have Already Begun

Terms such as "reorganization," "restructuring," and "optimization" usually describe dismissals. Employees should treat these terms as signals of layoffs.

A layoff warrants attention when:

• entire teams or employees with identical job titles are dismissed;
• entire business areas are affected;
• dismissals occur in waves at regular intervals.

Example: In April 2024, the Samolet group of companies actively hired staff for a rapidly growing project. Hiring then stopped across the company. Rumors of layoffs followed, and a series of mass dismissals began.

When colleagues are being dismissed, individual performance matters less. Employees in such an environment face elevated risk regardless of their work quality.

Example: After Citilink's revenue declined, the company carried out mass layoffs, as reported by Vedomosti and Habr. The company first divested low-profit areas, including IT outsourcing. It then optimized its call center and the IT team responsible for website support and internal systems development.

Sign 2: The Project Is Ending and No New Work Is Planned

A company may not dismiss everyone at once. It may instead cut business areas that do not generate revenue. Such areas lose revenue when their work runs out.

Typical indicators include:

• the project is nearly ready for release, and no further revisions are planned;
• the client is leaving, and no new project tasks exist;
• the team performs refactoring or polishing of features that already work.

Employees may be placed on the "bench" (no assigned project) or in a "reserve" pool. The company may promise to find new work but openly state that no work is currently available.

In the past, companies could keep IT specialists in reserve while they searched for a new project. For many companies, this is now unaffordable.

Russian outsourcing firms that depended on foreign clients were the most affected. The pattern is typically the same: employees are promised a new project, sometimes assigned internal training or support tasks for other teams. If no project is found, employees are dismissed.

Legal note: No lawful method exists for dismissing an employee solely because the employer has run out of projects. Signing a resignation letter "at one's own request" is not mandatory. Employees may negotiate and leave by mutual agreement of the parties.

Sign 3: Functions Are Being Reassembled

Employees' duties and functions are redistributed among colleagues. Positions are merged with other roles. For example, every backend developer also becomes a DevOps engineer. New roles appear that partly duplicate the employee's role, and the company hires people for them.

Corporate terms such as "function reassembly," "optimization," and "increasing team efficiency" usually mean that employees must do more for the same pay, and unnecessary positions are eliminated.

Example: In 2020, a internal guideline from the company Samokat for dismissing employees leaked. It used terms such as "function reassembly" and "changes to the product landscape."

Case: The survey respondent, a backend developer, was assigned to email and data science products. He attempted to prepare for these tasks independently, but few attempts succeeded. The company then threatened him with legal action in an effort to remove him.

Sign 4: Sudden Increase in Control

Before the change, the employee performed tasks and reported in Jira. Afterward, a new important spreadsheet or reporting process appears, or the employee must report results in a new chat.

Other indicators include:

• the manager pings the employee regularly and asks what was done today and this week, although all work is tracked in Jira;
• sudden attention to each completed task;
• daily calls, inspections, and report requirements.

Such oversight may be acceptable in itself. It becomes a signal when it appears suddenly, after different processes were previously in place.

Case: An Android developer at Beeline refused to resign voluntarily. The company then required him to submit daily reports. He received vague tasks with unclear deadlines and could not determine how to complete them. The aim of this practice is to collect material for a court case, showing that the employee does not perform his tasks. Proving this is extremely difficult in practice. In this case, the court ruled the dismissal unlawful.

A subscriber describes "three horsemen of the apocalypse": cancellation of the annual bonus, a change of management, and a requirement for daily reports. The sequence signals that someone is to be dismissed and that the employee is being documented.

Sign 5: Working Conditions Change Suddenly

After the COVID-19 pandemic, many employees were hired remotely. Some later discovered that their employment contracts allowed the employer to summon them to the office at any time. The employee may be required to appear in Moscow the next day. Failure to appear may result in a reprimand or disciplinary action.

Changes may include:

• a requirement to work from the office after a period of remote work;
• a changed work schedule;
• mandatory online hours;
• new added conditions in the employment contract.

Recommendation: Employees located far from the company's office should review their employment contract to determine whether remote work is formally permitted and whether the employer may require office attendance. Verbal permission does not guarantee that the contract allows remote work. The author suggests using GPT to analyze the contract for this purpose.

Sign 6: Important Tasks Stop Arriving

This is one of the most noticeable signs in day-to-day work. Fewer new tasks arrive. Large tasks no longer come. Interesting, ambitious projects and features are assigned to colleagues. The employee is no longer included in new initiatives, and overall workload gradually decreases.

Case: In the same Beeline Android developer case, management told the employee: "There are no more tasks for you." The company offered him a voluntary departure without severance.

After he refused, the standard process followed: the employee was gradually removed from work chats, required to submit daily reports, and presented with new complaints. Not everyone has the resources to hire a lawyer, consult with them, send the required responses, and manage this bureaucracy. Some employees decide to resign simply to end the pressure. The aim of this approach is to make working life unbearable so that the employee leaves voluntarily.

Related indicators include:

• the company hires developers at a lower grade and asks the employee to transfer knowledge to them to reduce headcount costs;
• the manager suddenly loses interest in a project that previously engaged them.

Workload indicator: If the employee's workload drops sharply, for example from seven out of ten to two out of ten, and the employee has not adopted AI tools or optimized their work, this change warrants attention. A company is unlikely to remove all tasks from an employee out of concern for their welfare.

Sign 7: The Employee Is Excluded from Communications and Processes

The employee stops receiving invitations to meetings they previously attended. Alternatively, colleagues are invited while the employee is not. Their opinion is no longer requested, and decisions are made without them.

Recording everything that happens at the workplace helps. This includes task tracker entries and chat messages. Such records form the basis for preparing for a potential court case. The author refers to a separate guide on dismissal for details.

Sign 8: Tasks and Areas of Responsibility Are Transferred to Another Person

The employee's tasks and areas of responsibility are assigned directly to another person. This sign applies as part of a set of indicators.

Example: An employee responsible for CI/CD is asked to teach a colleague to perform the same work. The employee is expected to reassign the tasks in Jira and explain the requirements.

The author clarifies that this does not mean employees must refuse to answer colleagues' questions. The point is different.

Cases exist in which an employer hires an intern paid one-fifth of the employee's salary, asks the employee to train the intern in all tasks, and then offers the employee a voluntary resignation. Employers have no lawful right to act this way.

Sign 9: Formal Claims and Documentation Requirements

Employees are asked to sign additional documents beyond the original employment contract and fire-safety instructions. These documents include:

• written remarks;
• written explanations;
• records of errors;
• reprimands;
• formal claims regarding deadlines;
• continuous documentation of completed and uncompleted work.

Written records of this kind are likely to be compiled and submitted to a court.

The author notes that an HR representative who says that everything is fine and that no layoffs will occur may be misleading employees. Conducting dismissals with minimal consequences for the company is part of HR's function.

Sign 10: Sudden Harsh Performance Reviews

Performance reviews become stricter, even though the employee works as usual and meets KPIs. The employee receives an unexpectedly low rating, "below expectations." The criteria for this rating are unclear.

Example: Elon Musk, according to reports about the Twitter acquisition, stated: "Over the course of a week, we collect what you did over the last three months, and each person has a ten-minute meeting, and we decide whether to fire them or not." The author cites this as an example of an intensive review format.

A regular annual performance review, such as a January review that occurs every year, does not count as a sign.

Case: At VK, the company began conducting two performance reviews per year instead of one. The first assessments appeared after a change in HR leadership.

The Labor Code contains no provisions on CRM systems in which colleagues evaluate each other, and it does not recognize 360-degree performance reviews. These assessments are presented as a serious basis for layoffs, but in practice they create psychological pressure without a legal basis.

Additional Signal: Use of AI Terminology

Terms such as "AI native," "AI agentic loop development," and "AI AI AI" are used more frequently. Companies conduct internal training and tell employees to "use AI urgently." In some cases, this does not improve or speed up development and may have the opposite effect.

The term AI washing describes a company that conducts layoffs but presents them to maintain its reputation and investor confidence as optimization through AI rather than dismissals. The author calls this claim false.

The author distinguishes between two types of managers. Competent managers improve processes with AI and increase task throughput with the same teams. Incompetent managers believe that adopting a tool such as Claude will turn each employee into a "10x engineer," so that ten people can be replaced by one.

Assessing the Overall Risk

None of these signs alone guarantees a dismissal. They form a gradient. The more signs present, the more likely a layoff becomes.

The author recommends:

• securing one or two job offers if the employee has not interviewed for a long time;
• preparing for a job search discreetly, without disclosing it to the current employer;
• not delaying this preparation.

Protection Against Unlawful Dismissal

Employees can protect themselves from unlawful layoffs. The author's guide on dismissal describes how to:

• collect screenshots of correspondence;
• document completed tasks;
• consult a lawyer to reach a settlement in which the employer offers severance, such as two months' salary, in exchange for the employee's departure.

Negotiating such terms is a legal right and does not constitute manipulation or fraud. Agreeing to a resignation "at one's own request" when the employee has no wish to leave is a costly mistake that the author advises employees to avoid.