Entrepreneur Mikhail Tokovinin argues that turbulent conditions in the Russian Federation favor newcomers, while stability favors established companies. He outlines opportunities in the car, content, automotive repair, construction materials, payments, and VPN markets, and offers views on CRM implementation, customer segments, and pricing.

Turbulence and Market Entry

Tokovinin states that turbulence benefits beginners and stability benefits successful businesses. Large, established companies seek to preserve the status quo. Disruption threatens their positions and opens space for new participants.

He recalls the 1990s. In his view, the period from 1989 to 1999 appeared as total chaos to the average person. For entrepreneurs, it represented a period of unique opportunities. He notes that peers of his generation regret not entering the market earlier, citing 1993 in particular.

Tokovinin argues that a beginning entrepreneur should view turbulence as a favorable condition. Entrepreneurs who consider difficult conditions a reason to exit business, in his assessment, should not remain in it.

Opportunities by Sector

Car Market

Before 2022, the Russian car market was large and stable. Official dealers, factories, and official representations held the market. Tokovinin states that new entrants had no realistic access.

Since then, the market has changed through parallel imports, garage operations, and online sales, including on Auto.ru. Sellers from Kyrgyzstan and other intermediaries now compete with dealers. Tokovinin cites his own purchase of a new Mercedes through a commission agreement with a Kyrgyz seller. The car was labeled "used" despite having 11 km on the odometer and carried no manufacturer warranty. He concludes that a car from a major dealer and one from an informal seller can be functionally identical. He also states that the market has enabled any entrepreneur to enter the business. He describes the past four years as a period in which the car market created a large number of opportunities for newcomers.

He expects the largest dealer networks to suffer. He names Rolf as an example of a company facing significant problems.

Content Market

Tokovinin describes major changes in the content market. Half of the bloggers have disappeared, and half of the platforms have been shut down. He considers these changes opportunities in content marketing and lead generation.

Beauty Salons

Tokovinin states that many beauty salons operate informally and do not pay taxes on their employees. He expects tax enforcement to take place within two years. He predicts that this will disrupt existing business models and remove about half of current market participants. He also expects taxation changes to reshape many other industries.

Marketplace Pickup Points

Tokovinin states that the future of marketplace pickup points is unclear. He believes that significant changes are underway in this segment and that they create niche opportunities.

Automotive Repair

Tokovinin states that official dealers generated most of the profit in automotive repair. With official dealers gone, the market now includes many little-known Chinese brands that few service providers know how to maintain. He notes that the market has grown from five brands to around 200. He considers this a major change in the sector.

Finishing Materials and Repairs

Tokovinin states that changes in distribution have eliminated the established supply chain. He cites the cancellation of OBI and the exit of manufacturers and suppliers. He says that this has created opportunities for new sellers. He gives examples of tiles supplied from Belarus and goods purchased in Europe and shipped to Russia. He states that this business did not exist before 2022.

Payments and Intermediaries

Tokovinin states that intermediaries and payment agents have emerged. He cites the arrangement of accounts and cards issued by Kazakh banks for Russian clients. He describes building a business around this service as possible.

VPN Services

Tokovinin states that the VPN market did not exist two years ago. He estimates that about one-third of users pay for VPN services, at approximately 300 rubles per month. He compares this with the 700 rubles that users previously paid for mobile phone service. He notes that VPN payments now approach the amounts users pay to mobile carriers. He identifies Beeline and MTS as operators that are losing traffic and revenue because users pay for VPN services instead.

Tokovinin states that creating and selling VPN services is legal unless prohibited. He describes the market as a continuous contest with blocking measures, which VPN providers evade. He states that the technology is not highly complex. He excludes illegal activities, including the monetization of pirated foreign films, from his analysis.

Summary of Sector Effects

Tokovinin states that every industry has been reorganized by the current situation. In his assessment, small businesses have gained unique opportunities, while large businesses face significant difficulties.

Advice on Growing or Retaining Clients

When asked whether to expand the client base or serve existing clients, Tokovinin answers that both options are valid. He recommends pursuing growth where possible. If lead generation is weak, he recommends focusing on existing clients and delivering strong service. He states that the entrepreneur should do what they do best.

He observes that the question likely comes from an entrepreneur who already has a client base, since a beginner would not have one. He advises that a decline in inbound client flow requires focus on current clients.

CRM Implementation

Tokovinin cites a case in which a company with five managers implemented a CRM system. Within a month, the managers returned to WhatsApp and Excel.

He argues that a CRM has no value on its own. He compares it with a drill: the value lies in the result the tool produces. A CRM requires implementation, which includes:

• Technical setup
• Staff training
• Explanation of its value to employees
• Adjustment of business processes where needed

He describes a method sometimes used to encourage CRM use: lead distribution is tied to CRM use. Under this approach, managers receive leads only when they maintain accurate records. He states that this approach is an established practice.

When a company does not hire an implementer, Tokovinin states that someone within the company takes on the implementation role. He compares this with the roles of an accountant or a systems administrator, which remain necessary even when a company has no dedicated staff for them.

He states that self-implementation usually produces poor results. In his view, the cause is a lack of specialized knowledge rather than a lack of ability. Experienced implementers know configuration details such as lead distribution, access permissions, employee motivation, and integrations. He recommends that small businesses without CRM experience hire a professional implementer.

Tokovinin also notes that selecting an implementer is difficult. Companies may receive proposals from many partners, and results may disappoint. He cites cases in which a company spent three months without a working system.

Working with Different Customer Segments

Tokovinin rejects the statement that a person can become rich by working for the poor. He also rejects the opposite view that wealth comes only from serving the rich. He states that the key factor is margin.

He cites U.S. statistics that he recalls without specifying a source. According to these figures, the wealthiest 1% of Americans consume more than the other 99% combined. He argues that the wealthy segment is therefore more profitable. He states that low-income customers spend nearly all their income on necessities, and that low-margin markets make high profitability difficult. He illustrates this with the example of goods bought for one ruble and sold for 90 kopecks.

He cites examples of businesses serving affluent customers. He mentions Arnault, whose LVMH group sells luxury goods and who, in his estimate, ranks among the world's richest people. He also cites financiers, analysts, banks, hedge funds, and investment firms, including BlackRock, as examples of businesses that serve wealthy clients.

Tokovinin agrees that the middle market is shrinking. He states that entrepreneurs in this segment must move either upward or downward.

Pricing Strategy

Tokovinin argues that the choice between mid-market and premium positioning depends on the entrepreneur's skills and starting conditions. He uses socks as an example:

• An entrepreneur who sells socks at 500 rubles is positioned in the mid-price segment. If sales decline, the entrepreneur should consider whether a lower or higher price is appropriate.
• An entrepreneur who can import socks at a cost of 50 rubles and sell them at 200 rubles through informal channels, including sales through a registered self-employed seller, can remain at the lower price.
• An entrepreneur who lacks such capabilities should move to the premium segment, at around 1,000 rubles. Otherwise, in his view, the business will fail.

He states that companies with the scale and tax position of Wildberries can operate at low price points. Other companies, he argues, should move up-market and sell premium, brand-name products.

Tokovinin also discusses premium pricing. He states that buyers spend 300 to 400 rubles on coffee that is consumed within an hour, but a pair of quality socks is used for months. He argues that this comparison supports higher prices for durable premium goods.