Trump's Proposal for Normalizing Relations with Russia

The Atlantic magazine reports on a new strategy by Donald Trump's administration regarding Russia, proposed by U.S. Special Representative for Eastern Europe John Cole. The plan aims to break the deadlock in relations with Moscow and involves a "quid pro quo" exchange: the Kremlin releases some political prisoners, and in response, the U.S. eases sanctions against the Russian economy. Trump has approved this initiative, which seeks to facilitate Russia's return to the global economy. This would allow for an expanded agenda in negotiations with the Kremlin, moving beyond the conflict in Ukraine, and securing favorable deals for the U.S. on Russian oil, diesel fuel, rare earth metals, and other commodities. An additional bonus mentioned is the possibility of Donald Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize if political prisoners are released. However, as the publication notes, the plan will inevitably face resistance from Ukraine, European countries, and parts of the American political establishment.

John Cole has been negotiating with Alexander Lukashenko for over a year regarding the release of Belarusian political prisoners. He announced his intention to address Russian prisoners a week ago, noting that work is also underway concerning Ukrainian captives. Cole confirmed the existence of lists of political prisoners but declined to disclose them, expressing hope for success in this matter.

Simon Schuster, the author of the article in The Atlantic, explained on the TV channel "Dozhd" that the idea is that Russia's return to the global economy might prompt Vladimir Putin to end the war. This approach, according to Schuster, is being discussed by Jared Kushner and Steve Utkoff. They believe that economic ties contribute to normalizing relations and gradually achieving peace. Germany previously attempted a similar strategy by building "Nord Stream," believing that economic deals would integrate Russia into the global community.

The host expressed doubt about the logic of this approach, as it is unclear why Putin, who is unwilling to end the war, would suddenly decide to do so due to economic incentives. Schuster acknowledged that the logic is not entirely clear but noted that Trump's envoys are tired of the stalemate in Ukraine. They aim to strike financial deals with Russia, but the war hinders this. Cole's humanitarian initiative could create space for continued economic negotiations.

Schuster also commented on the recent visits of Steve Utkoff, Jared Kushner, and CIA Director William Burns to Moscow. According to his information, Burns' main message to Russia was to prevent the war from expanding into NATO territory, particularly the Baltics and Poland. Regarding Ukraine, there is no clear progress, but Ukrainian negotiators are hoping for a trilateral negotiation round in the UAE (presumably in Abu Dhabi) in October to discuss a limited ceasefire concerning energy, infrastructure, or the Black Sea.

Trump invited Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit in Miami in December, where an opportunity for negotiations involving Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy might arise. The Ukrainian side is open to such a format, but Putin has not yet accepted the invitation and shows no desire for good-faith negotiations.

Threats to Lithuania and NATO's Position

Amidst discussions of a new US strategy, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported that William Burns, during negotiations in Moscow, predicted Russia's economic collapse along the lines of the Soviet Union, attempting to convince the Kremlin of Russia's inability to win the war economically. Schuster noted that this confirms the US's desire to engage Russia through economic pressure, but in his opinion, these threats do not influence Putin.

Putin, according to Schuster, is counting on success on the battlefield in winter and enjoys the process of waging war. Participants in the negotiation process describe the situation as a "dance around Putin," where everyone offers him various options, and he remains immobile.

Regarding rumors of Trump supporting the idea of sending Zelensky to Moscow, Schuster noted that Zelensky is ready for negotiations in any format except Moscow and Belarus, as he considers them aggressor countries.

Concerning Russian political prisoners, John Cole, according to Schuster, has been successfully addressing this issue in Belarus for almost two years, achieving the release of hundreds of people. Similar actions are planned for Russia, where lists of journalists, dissidents, and opponents of the war are being compiled. Nobel laureate Dmitry Muratov is assisting Cole in this process, providing information about the prisoners and their conditions of detention.

Schuster is skeptical about the possibility of Trump receiving the Nobel Peace Prize due to his public demands, noting that this does not help candidates. Trump's main priority, according to Schuster, is to end the war in Ukraine and normalize relations with Russia to conclude financial deals.

Russia's Reaction to Lithuania's Actions

Amidst regional tensions, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published an article titled "Russia awaits another SMO. It will be very short," discussing a scenario of missile strikes on Lithuanian territory. The text was promptly removed from the website. This occurred after the Lithuanian parliament voted to remove the constitutional ban on the deployment of nuclear weapons on the country's territory. Dmitry Kiselyov, Director General of the "Rossiya Segodnya" media group, stated that the text was published due to a technical oversight, and neither Putin nor other officials had announced a new "SMO."

Arvydas Anušauskas, former Lithuanian Minister of National Defence and member of the Lithuanian Seimas, commented on the situation:

• Evacuation Plans: Plans for the evacuation of the populations of Lithuania and Poland were developed earlier and are linked not only to military threats but also to the radiological hazard from the Ostrovets Nuclear Power Plant (Belarus). Threats to civilians can be diverse.
• Threats from Russia: Russia is expending a significant portion of its resources on the war in Ukraine, which limits its ability to create major military threats to other states. However, these limitations are not permanent and depend on the outcome of the war. Hybrid attacks are considered the most likely escalation scenarios: cyberattacks, sabotage, and limited military provocations to test NATO's readiness.
• Russia's Resources: Russia is bogged down in Ukraine, and macroeconomic problems are mounting. After the conflict in Ukraine concludes, Russia will have to address its internal issues.
• Mobilization Plans: Various mobilization plans have existed for a long time and are not new. Lithuania's and NATO's military capabilities have significantly strengthened since 2022.
• Information Provocations: The publication on RIA Novosti is regarded as an information provocation, which is one of the Kremlin's tools. Statements about the possible deployment of nuclear weapons in Lithuania are also part of information attacks.
• Nuclear Weapons: Lithuania's constitutional amendment does not automatically mean the deployment of nuclear weapons but merely removes restrictions on one of NATO's collective deterrence options. Russia has deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus and the Kaliningrad region.
• Medvedev's Threats: Dmitry Medvedev's threats of "Lithuania disappearing from the world map" are perceived as information threats that do not influence NATO policy.

International Reaction and Discussion of Guilt

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev proposed freezing military actions in Ukraine to transition to negotiations, calling Vladimir Putin an "outstanding statesman" and the most acceptable political figure for Europe and the world.

Former White House Press Secretary Kirsten Levitt spoke about Donald Trump's conversation with the then-Prime Minister of Great Britain, during which Trump criticized his policies, urging border closures and the deportation of migrants.

A discussion about the guilt and responsibility of Russians for the war has unfolded in Russia. Writer Dmitry Glukhovsky published the novel "Registration," which sparked heated debate. The novel describes longing, poverty, and hopelessness in contemporary Russia. Literary critic Anna Narinskaya believes that Glukhovsky chose an easy path by depicting a world without good. Literary scholar Mikhail Edelshtein suggests that emigrants who left Russia before the war cannot adequately reflect its current reality. Glukhovsky himself asserts that it is impossible to completely leave Russia, as it always remains with a person.

Musician Mikhail Kozyrev considers the novel's characters "dehumanized" and unworthy of sympathy. Human rights activist Anna Koretnikova disagrees, recognizing herself and her emotions in the characters. She notes that Glukhovsky sympathizes with the characters but does not justify them, seeing in a person both a victim and an accomplice. Writer Dmitry Bykov praises Glukhovsky for capturing reality, noting the predictability and boredom of contemporary Russia.

On the Breakfast Show, sociologist Konstantin Gaz stated that everyone living in Russia and paying taxes is an accomplice to the crime. His words provoked a strong reaction and accusations of propaganda. Gaz refers to the Potsdam Declaration and the Nuremberg trials, arguing that the population of an aggressor country bears economic, and for many, criminal responsibility.

Garry Kasparov supports the idea of collective responsibility, asserting that most Russians have become part of the "war economy." Actor Nikita Kukushkin released a video calling for resistance, adapting a 1971 video from the USA. The video sparked debate about moralizing from a safe distance.