Introduction: The Crisis of the World Order

The introduction describes the growing risk of a world war comparable to World War II. The speaker stresses that wars once started are hard to stop, and that major countries are led by reckless leaders who, in his words, lie. The normalization of lying is called dangerous, and the collapse of the Soviet Union is explained by the fact that it was built on lies. The speaker admits that, despite his interlocutor's knowledge of World War II, he himself does not understand what is happening. History, as he describes it, is moving very fast, its direction is unclear, and the situation is extremely frightening. The fragment ends with Putin deciding to overturn the chessboard by launching an invasion; the continuation in the draft breaks off.

Ukraine and US Politics

The host claims that Donald Trump started an "entertainment" war with Iran that undermined the US economy, destroyed the US system of alliances, and harmed the global economy. He also describes Putin and other similar leaders as people with "dark" qualities who are indifferent to the number of deaths, and calls them historically unqualified. In a discussion of Trump's deal with Putin on diesel fuel supplies, the interlocutor calls this disinformation: Russia lacks the capacity to export diesel in volumes that would change anything, and the host's claim is called a lie. The speaker then argues that Trump will not exit the war with Iran, Putin will not exit the war in Ukraine, and these conflicts will last indefinitely. Asked about the future under the current course, the expert responds that such conflicts must be prevented before they spread, since after that everything will collapse for good. The guest, Dr. Sara Payne, is described by the host as a highly knowledgeable specialist on a topic that is relevant amid wars, conflicts, Putin's invasion, and Trump's actions in Iran, as well as the unrest in Paris, where the host had been the day before. The host asks which "first domino" started it all. Payne answers that history has no precise beginning and is a long, continuous process. She describes how earlier states, often empires, built power on land: the continental world is based on seizing territories, which leads to the burning of wealth. Later, an alternative emerged, originally associated with maritime powers, which grew into a maritime world order. Britain was a maritime power, and the industrial revolution enabled the accumulation of wealth, which became a turning point (the speech fragment breaks off).

Money, Wealth and Power

Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and War

The speaker argues that the assessment of the situation around Iran failed to account for Iran's strengths, its weaknesses, or the interests of other stakeholders, and that the most important scenario, closing the Strait of Hormuz, was not anticipated by anyone. In his view, narrow sea passages are easily blocked in wartime: Ukraine closed the Black Sea, and coastal artillery and mines halt ship traffic. Closing the Strait of Hormuz, like a «hot water bottle» that is «being boiled», deprives countries without an alternative sea outlet of the ability to export goods by sea. He then says the US had a major naval base in Bahrain. If it could not be used, the next point would be the Diego Garcia base, about 2,500 miles away, which is located «in the middle of nowhere», and that would be a serious problem. He criticizes the White House for not having smart people there who should have calculated these risks. As a contrast, he recalls the first Trump administration, which had General Mattis, and the current defense secretary nicknamed «Major Pete» (Hegseth), whom he accuses of firing Black people and women and of testing testosterone levels, doubting any link between this and reasoning ability. He concludes that these people are historically unfit for their positions, which makes them extremely dangerous, that they undermine the future of their own children and the prospects of the Republican Party. When asked what, in their opinion, should have been expected, he does not give a direct answer and moves on to another topic.

American Hubris and Quality of Leadership

The speaker distinguishes two types of American hubris. Type A is the belief that all significant decisions in the world are made in the US, which he ironically rejects. Type B is the belief that if you are very good at something, you are good at everything. This applies to some tech people. The antidote is humility, an understanding of the limits of one's own expertise, and a willingness to listen to others, including dissenting opinions, because people cannot see their own blind spots. It is important to keep dialogue going across political disagreements. According to him, current advisers are “yesmen,” made fatal mistakes, and caused lasting damage to US national security. The speaker quotes Trump's remarks about seizing other countries: the comparison with Venezuela, the idea of making Canada the 51st state, and the belief that Iran will be a “walk in the park” and that beheading the leader will lead to a popular uprising. The speaker calls Trump a continentalist and a real estate agent who thinks in terms of property. Next he describes “halfcourt tennis”: looking only at yourself and “Team America” without studying the other side. He compares this to soccer: real fans know not only their own team but all the major teams and their players, and this holds for both American and European soccer. In foreign policy, studying the other side is essential. Iranian Lego videos mocking America show Iran's deep understanding of Americans, whereas Americans, the speaker says, do not understand what is happening. The concept: some desired goals are unattainable, such as everyone becoming a multimillionaire. Pursuing an unachievable goal leads to overextension and a bad outcome. A problem that can be solved should be solved, while a threat that cannot be solved must be managed. The “Greatest Generation” took this approach toward the Soviet Union: it was a mortal threat, but a solution would have meant a nuclear end. The instruments of national power included sanctions aimed at slowing the USSR's growth. Unlike today's tariffs on everyone, the strategy was to maximize the growth of those who behaved well within the alliance system and minimize the growth of those who did not, so that the relative threat would shrink over time. This does not solve the problem, but it allows you to sit safely “behind castle walls” and manage it at acceptable cost, since sanctions cost the adversary far more than they cost you. You also need to spread accurate rather than propagandistic information, counting on generational change and the other side revising its position. If a problem can be solved, it should be solved, yet now people are trying to “solve” Iran, a country of 90 million people. At the end, the speaker begins to examine Nazi Germany and its expanded borders, but the fragment breaks off.

Germany, the UN and the Permanent Members of the Security Council

The speaker discusses the size of Germany, which he suggests may include Austria and other territories, and population figures: by his estimate, about 80 million in Germany and about 90 million in Iran. He believes an occupation of Iran modeled on the postwar occupation of Germany is not feasible. By his account, occupation forces after World War II numbered about 1.5 million, but this excludes the millions of people who arrived from Russia and elsewhere, and he is willing to defer to historians. He then turns to the Obama-era deal with Iran, which was signed by all permanent members of the UN Security Council and the EU. It provided for a strict inspection system to contain Iran's nuclear program. The agreement was not perfect, but it was realistic and reduced the threat. The speaker argues that current wars are encouraging the spread of nuclear weapons: Putin with his war and the US with its actions against Iran have created incentives to “get the bomb,” which he calls deeply self-destructive. He then explains the concept of a “fatal mistake”: once it is made, the earlier options become far better than the current ones, and they cannot be restored. In his view, Putin made such a mistake by attacking Ukraine. Before that, he had acted effectively through “little green men” in Crimea and Donbas and had slowly destabilized Ukraine, but instead he helped form a Ukrainian national identity. The speaker adds that national identities often arise from wars and cites the American Revolution, during which individual colonies acquired a more unified national consciousness. The text breaks off at a phrase about what should be done next “for us.”

Allies, Institutions, and International Rules

The speaker claims that because of the war in Iran, the US has lost its status as a reliable ally, and trust cannot be restored. The host links this to the collapse of the postwar order and a possible second Cold War that could end in nuclear war. Samantha (Sarah) compares the rules-based international order to traffic: the system holds because most people follow norms, since law enforcement resources would not be enough to compel compliance. An example of such a norm: a candidate who loses an election congratulates the winner and says they will do better next time, rather than accusing the opponent of cheating. According to him, the US is leaving this order, and the existential threat has spurred rapid institutional building in Europe. This refers to the so-called Baltic Eight: Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Iceland. These countries are jointly organizing a security system and carrying out remilitarization. Spaceports are also being developed: the United Kingdom has had them since the 1960s, as have Norway and Sweden, and the UK is building a new one in the Shetland Islands. Europe intends to create its own satellite system and free itself from dependence on American payment systems by shifting to local solutions. An app tells users whether a product is American, which encourages a boycott of American goods (called the "B-word boycott"). Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is traveling between countries and uniting middle powers, which, according to the speaker, is forming a new world order. He also states that the US has "lost its way," although it made a major positive contribution and was on the right side of both world wars.

Conflict and Russia's goals in the war in Ukraine: focused on risks and negotiations in a generally unsolvable situation. Superfluous content discarded. (tbd)

## Conflict and Russia's Goals The interlocutor assesses the war in Ukraine as deeply negative for the future of children and argues that the key problem lies in the difference between limited and unlimited goals. An unlimited goal, in his words, is regime change, and in its extreme form, genocide, as with Hitler. By this logic, Putin seeks not only to seize Ukraine but also to destroy the Ukrainian government down to young children, tried to execute Zelensky's family, and wants to eliminate the bearers of Ukrainian culture. Limited goals range from capturing half the country to demanding politeness at football matches. ### Economic Consequences Sanctions and trade disputes, in his view, hurt the US itself. Kentucky bourbon is losing the Canadian market, since Canada accounts for 5–10% of many companies' business, and Canada is redirecting energy supplies to Europe. Trump's threats to Canada (as the 51st state) and to Greenland have undermined alliances. Gasoline prices are rising due to the energy shock, and voters have split roughly into thirds: one third voted for the current course, one against it, and one did not vote. The Russian economic model is failing: it produces almost no goods, Smirnoff belongs to a British company, and communist exports undermined living standards and cost lives through a shortage of vaccines. The Soviet economy collapsed due to lies in the planned system and the misallocation of capital and labor. Doubling calculation: at 1% annual growth, an economy doubles in roughly 69–70 years; at 3% growth, in 23 years; and with a loss of 2% growth, the doubling expectation becomes 71 years. Sanctions, in his words, shrink the opponent's 'piggy bank' the way chemotherapy shrinks a tumor, but do not eliminate it. ### Military Logic and Assessment of the Russian Army Russia's continental imperialism implies consistent expansion: Chechnya, Transnistria, Georgia in 2008, Crimea, and parts of Ukraine. Putin came to power during the Second Chechen War. Russian soldiers went into Ukraine with 3–10 days of rations and parade uniforms, expecting a quick victory, but encountered Ukrainian civilians throwing Molotov cocktails at tanks. The 'killing field' tactic makes unlimited goals dangerous: an opponent with nothing to lose becomes strong. Stalin shot the officer corps and organized the famine in Ukraine. Zelensky described a trench with 500 tortured bodies of all ages, which, in his opinion, makes peace in Ukraine unlikely. ### Political Forecasts Dictatorships do not allow for resignation: Putin has no way out, since his entourage is bound by a system of mutual protection, and his predecessors had only honorable confinement at a dacha, as with Khrushchev. A possible change of power in Russia is unpredictable. Analogy with the Romanovs: Nicholas II started the war with Japan in 1904–1905, which led to collapse. Iran after the death of the ayatollah may become a threat of nuclear escalation while Trump and Netanyahu are in power. Concerns are tied to a tactical nuclear strike and to the prospect that the US would become the country that has used nuclear weapons three times. ### Conclusions The interlocutor calls for a reassessment of positions in democracies, for choosing an alternative party as a way to correct mistakes, and for preserving the two-party system. He condemns the normalization of lies and notes that Trump is not revising the course on the war, while the public may blame Biden for prices, although it was Trump who started this war.

Russia and the Price of War in History and Today

The passage describes what happens to Russia when it wages a costly war. Nicholas II lost the war, and as a result the state found itself in a difficult position. The passage then introduces the concept of opportunity cost: if all money is spent on war, things that could have been done with those funds are not done, for example building a railway network in the western part of Russia.

World War I and Nicholas II's Decisions

## Logistics and Railways in World War I In World War I, Nicholas II could not move troops and supply the army effectively, because the Allies had no convenient supply route to Russia. Russia's main seaports, the Baltic and the Black Sea, were closed to trade during wartime. The speaker believes that building railways could have changed the outcome: better roads would have made it possible to deliver grain and perhaps receive food aid from other countries. He assesses the missed opportunities as enormous. The overthrow of the tsar was triggered by hunger riots in Petrograd, the capital at the time. ## Chinese Support for Putin According to the speaker, China is now providing Putin with vital resources. He sees the reasons in China's interests: Beijing wants to push the US out of global affairs, does not like Russia itself, and Russia's weakening benefits China, which needs its resources. The speaker, who defended a dissertation on the history of the Russian-Chinese border, recalls that Russia took from the Chinese sphere of influence a territory larger than all the US territory east of the Mississippi River, and China has not forgotten this. China supplies Russia with resources, including for missile production, and takes payment for them, but at the same time weakens it. Russia is under sanctions on energy and other goods, so China gets resources at a significant discount and bargains hard. ## The Nuclear Factor and Long-Term Consequences In the speaker's view, Russia once had nuclear weapons that deterred China, but Putin squandered them. He cannot even cope with Ukraine, let alone China, which the speaker calls a serious mistake. The speaker admits he does not know the details about the missiles Russia has, and notes that maintaining a nuclear arsenal requires servicing it. He believes India and China warned Russia that using nuclear weapons would be a serious mistake, but this is his understanding, not a verified fact. He also claims that Russia has a low birth rate and that the long-term consequences for the country will only get worse.

Nuclear Weapons and Pressure on Russia

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Internal Conflicts and Democracy

The speaker describes internal conflicts in Europe: in France there are street riots, with people in balaclavas looting shops at night. In the UK, the Sunday Times writes that the country is "going broke": debt stands at three trillion and interest payments at 110 billion a year, so the new Chancellor of the Exchequer has little room to maneuver. Sentiment against financial aid to other countries is therefore strong. According to him, the post-World War II generation built institutions in ten years that kept peace in Europe for three generations. History now moves fast, which both frightens and opens a window of opportunity before the concrete sets again. European growth is weak, and simplifying regulation is probably the main remedy. Young people in Europe see no opportunities and believe there are no chances. In the US, in his view, the cause is not immigrants but the tax code, which determines where money goes. Over the last fifteen years billionaires have emerged in the US, and about a thousand families are worth at least a billion. Monopoly allows setting prices, while monopsony, when an employer hires a large share of the workforce, allows dictating wages. US wages are falling, people work forty or more hours a week and cannot make ends meet. The midterm elections cover part of the Senate, the entire House of Representatives, and governors. The House is elected for two years, senators for six, and Senate seats are unevenly distributed across terms. Republicans control Congress and the majority on the Supreme Court, but polls suggest they could lose the Senate and possibly the House. There are doubts whether power will keep elections honest: concerns about ICE agents at polling sites and voting machines, and a claim of payments of five thousand dollars for voting Republican. The Republican Party has changed: from Eisenhower and Reagan it has moved to a cult of one man. The speaker advises focusing on goals: national security and prosperity. He argues that the war with Iran hurt both sides, and that the Senate confirmed Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense although he was a major. In his words, this was a serious breach of duty, and without it there might not have been a war with Iran. Republicans reject bipartisan cooperation, so laws are not passed, and Trump acts by executive order, creating facts on the ground. For example, old trees on a golf course in Washington were cut down, which cannot be undone. The democratic core consists of the democracies of the West, Central Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the US. Threats to seize Greenland and make Canada the fifty-first state deprive the country of the right to that place. The speaker does not explain Trump's motives and refuses to make psychological guesses.

American Democracy and Elections

The speaker compares Taiwan and China and argues that a prosperous democracy is possible in a society dominated by the Han ethnic group. He calls the ideas that democracy and Han people are incompatible racist and believes Taiwanese have disproven them. According to him, authoritarian leaders fear honest elections, because then Xi Jinping would not have become head of China, and Vladimir Putin would not have become head of Russia. The speaker believes this is what they perceive as an existential threat. He argues that democratic societies create mass wealth, because mutual tolerance, legal guarantees, and people's right to do business and keep the fruits of their labor create conditions for prosperity. In his words, China grew rich when it joined a rules-based maritime order and abided by those rules. It can keep growing wealthier, but not if it starts wars. In response to the claim that China rarely fights wars, the speaker references Vietnam and says China was shaped by a series of wars, then mentions the Qing dynasty, but the sentence cuts off.

Asia and Global Tensions

The source text of the chapter was not provided, so no facts can be extracted. To structure it, a draft of the chapter in English must be supplied.

The Fall of the Dynasty in China and Japan

After the fall of the dynasty in 1911–1912, China entered an era of warlords, when regional leaders fought among themselves. By around 1927, this had developed into a two-sided communist-nationalist struggle. Meanwhile, in 1930, amid the Great Depression, the United States imposed high tariffs on the initiative of supporters of «America First». Economists warned President Hoover that other countries would retaliate in kind, but he imposed the tariffs anyway. As a result, a large-scale trade war began. The fragment breaks off at the description of U.S. actions.

Tariffs and Trade Conflicts

The author begins by asking how countries would respond if tariffs were raised, and warns that this would lead to the collapse of the global economy and a deepening of the Great Depression. As an example, the author cites Japan, which depended on foreign trade: its former partners cut it off from supplies, so Japan's leadership concluded that the only way out was to build an empire of sufficient size to be self-sufficient. In 1931, Japan invaded Manchuria. The author explains the attack on Pearl Harbor by the fact that the United States was sending aid to China, while Japan demanded that it stop. Hawaii was not a state at the time (it gained statehood in 1959) and was regarded as a US colony. The Japanese expected America to come to its senses and back down, but the US responded by increasing pressure and opposed Japan. The author also points to the protracted war that tore China apart from 1911–1912 until 1945.

The Chinese Civil War and the Great Leap Forward

The chronicle describes China's wars and political campaigns from the 1940s to the present. The Chinese Civil War lasted until 1949. Mao Zedong then ran a series of political campaigns, including the campaign against the "rightists." The Korean War lasted from 1950 to 1953. Deng Xiaoping waged a war against Vietnam: it was costly but short and quick. In 1962 a border war with India took place, in which the Chinese defeated India and turned it into a permanent enemy, which the speaker assesses as a mistake. Next came the campaigns against the "rightists" and the Cultural Revolution, which Mao used to hold on to power. In parallel, the Great Leap Forward caused the Great Famine: China kept exporting food, earning "pocket money" from it, while people starved. After these events, participants in the earlier wars died, and the speaker believes the Chinese likely have no desire to fight new wars. Looking ahead, the speaker suggests that if the current trajectory continues, a World War II-scale conflict is possible. He stresses the need to prevent outbreaks of conflict and gives the example of Iran: Donald Trump will not back down and will want to show that he won. Finally, a chart shows the number of nuclear warheads held by each country, and the speaker argues that the world already lives in the nuclear age, though the fragment breaks off at this point.

Drones and Dangerous Escalation

The speakers discuss whether nuclear weapons deter escalation. One says no: mutually assured destruction, in his view, has already been turned upside down by Putin, who is threatening NATO countries. He notes that in recent days drones violated airspace and territorial waters, naming Bulgaria and Romania and saying the drones were shot down there (the other speaker was asked to correct him if he was wrong). If drones are shot down on NATO territory, Article 5 applies, under which all members are forced to go to war together. Europeans, he says, do not want this, since it would become a "goddamn dirty mess." The strength of Article 5 lies in the fact that the generation that remembered World War II went to great lengths to avoid triggering it; current leaders do not behave this way. Asked whether World War II would begin if Putin invaded Poland, the speaker answered "yes," but admitted he does not know what it would look like; he suggested computer simulations of nuclear strikes on cities as a way to see the death toll. He then talks about dark figures in power: Putin, in his view, does not care about the number killed, and people take a long time to recognize such leaders, until they become something like Hitler with concentration camps. He also claims that Trump will not withdraw from Iran and that Putin will not withdraw from Ukraine. The solution for the US, he says, lies in the next Congress: impeachment and censure of the president. The other speaker objects that another person would then take his place. He argues that whoever ends the country's involvement in war will do so on very bad terms, and that Republicans want Democrats to do it so they can blame Democrats. Conclusion: blame should fall on those who start wars, not those who end them. It ends with a question about how history will remember Zelensky.

Iran and the Refusal to Retreat

The chapter assesses Ukraine's political role and its leader, as well as the split in the international system caused by US actions. The speaker calls the Ukrainian leader a great statesman and hero who could have left Ukraine. He claims Biden offered him evacuation, but he replied that he needed not a ride out but ammunition. The speaker says this leader communicates effectively and expresses bewilderment that he is not being supported. The war is described as one of the most obvious aggressive wars, and Russia's brutality toward civilians is cited as grounds for considering Russian perpetrators dangerous and unacceptable in the rest of Europe. Settlement requires rebuilding Ukraine and forcing Russia to stop shelling, as well as isolating it from the influence of "middle powers," which, according to the speaker, Carney and his allies are now organizing. It is further argued that Europe and other countries are drifting away from the US. After the US operation against Maduro, the speaker says countries are seeking a counterweight in China as the "less crazy" option. The US attempt to declare the Western Hemisphere its sphere of influence, in his view, makes China welcome to these states. The speaker considers it a paradox that the use of force leads to loss of influence, and links this to the display of power, threats, and the invasion of Iran.

Venezuela and US Actions

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