Euforia Anthropic, rally Asia. Domani Fed e Big Tech. real -8,5%. Israele vota | Morning Finance

Oct 27, 2026

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Euphoria at Anthropic, Asia rally. Tomorrow Fed and Big Tech. Real -8.5%. Israel votes | Morning Finance

One year of Morning Finance: Anthropic's $1.5T IPO, Big Tech financing, Fed week, Brazil's crash and Israel's election. Your daily market briefing.

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Overview of geopolitical and market news: US investigations, Middle East diplomacy, Brazilian market crash, and Israeli elections.

Democrats preparing investigations into the Trump-Putin deal on resuming Russian diesel exports
Trump said anyone reporting electoral fraud leading to arrests and convictions would receive $1 million
Talks in Tehran with Saudi, Pakistani and Turkish counterparts
Saudi Arabia reportedly offered $1 billion to the Houthis in exchange for ending attacks
Bovespa closed down 14%; real lost 8.5% vs USD, worst session since 1999
Brazil 10-year yield rose 300 basis points in one session
Israeli election: over 7.3 million voters, first since 7 October; referendum on Netanyahu
Eisenkot leads polls; Arab parties could win 14-16 seats but bloc leaders rule out government entry

Anniversary of the show and a sponsor segment for Scalable Capital.

Morning Finance marks one year on 27 October; first episode was 27 October 2025
Host Silvia Berzoni; show is a video podcast by Blackbox
Scalable Capital sponsorship: broker with IBAN, Italian support and interest on uninvested cash
Live stream tonight at 18:30 with Simone Piranio and Cecilia Sala

Wall Street recap and week-ahead agenda with Fed, Big Tech earnings and Powell's stance.

Wall Street was positive with limited momentum and ongoing de-risking
Week ahead: Alphabet, Microsoft, Fed, Amazon and Intel earnings; 163 S&P 500 companies report
Powell must balance inflation fight with a pause; market prices 80% chance of a December move
Goldman Sachs strategist: earnings expected positive, price action and capex financing matter most
RBC warns of a 5-10% S&P drop; HSBC cut equities to neutral short term
Goldman Sachs: risk appetite indicator negative for first time since March
BlackRock CIO Rick Rieder: unprecedented equity and bond financing activity
Semiconductors: SOX closed up 2.8% after rising nearly 4%; SOX down 13% this month
Nvidia +2.4%, Intel +4%, Arm +6%; Nasdaq expected to open cautiously
US and Canada near partial deal on steel and auto tariffs

Anthropic IPO details: size, valuation, financials, risks, governance, and financing structure.

Expected listing in week of 16 November, ticker ANT on Nasdaq; aims to beat SpaceX as largest IPO ever, raising over $100 billion
Valuation estimated up to $1.5-1.75 trillion; underwriters JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
Anthropic says no dividend expected in the near future
H1 revenue $16.3 billion, up 1,304% year on year; 48% from AWS, Google and Azure marketplaces
Q3 growth expected at 45% vs 140% previous quarter; gross margins above 80%
Operating loss fell from $2.1 billion to$ 693 million; Q2 operating profit $974 million
Total debt at June $6.2 billion; cash and equivalents$ 132 billion; cash flow $3.4 billion
Compute spending up 283% year on year; revenue per compute dollar $2.08
Top five customers 21% of Q3 revenue (down from 36%); about 12,000 customers spend over $100,000 per year
Net retention 900%; compute cost fell from 201% to 55% of revenue
Risk factors: agents requiring more compute, open-weight model competition, data center backlash, 94 pages of risks
Governance: public benefit corporation; seven founders in a class F share entity with 50.1% control, each founder 1.4%

Financing deals and corporate moves: Broadcom SPV, Meta equity raise, Microsoft buyouts, SpaceX and Goldman Sachs.

Broadcom structured $63 billion financing for Anthropic via an SPV leasing compute; lenders include Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup and Blackstone
Meta announced $95 billion equity offering two hours before Anthropic's S-1 filing
Meta offering: $22.5 billion common shares via Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs;$ 12.5 billion convertible preferred due 2029; $60 billion non-voting shares sold in 2027
Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom may invest $5 billion as cornerstone investors
Microsoft offers voluntary buyouts to about 60,000 employees in US, Canada, India and UK
SpaceX confirmed a $40 billion chip and server leasing deal with Apollo
Goldman Sachs stock down 0.8% to below $115

Market close: US megacaps, Treasuries, commodities, Asian AI bubble and Chinese markets.

Treasury 10-year at 4.97%; 30-year at 5.28%; 70 billion dollars 5-year auction
Gold down 0.4%, silver down 1.7%; Bitcoin below $80,000
Euro at 1.1166; dollar index slightly stronger; yen at 157 with Katayama saying intervention is ready
Tesla +5% after Barclays buy with $450 target; Apple -1% over Apple Duo screen complaints
Exxon and Chevron record highs; VIX down 5.45%
China STAR 50 down 40% in 3 months; CSI 300 in bear territory, 12th straight weekly loss
Unitree Robotics down 50% since August IPO; Moore Threads down 50% since July
AI stocks are 42% of China's market cap and 57% of A and H share trading
China industrial profits up 14.4% in September; China 10-year yield at record low
Nikkei +2%, SoftBank +7%; Kospi halted by circuit breaker, Samsung and SK Hynix up 5-6%
South Korea GDP +1% vs 0.7% expected; TSMC plans price increases above 20%
HSBC revenue $18.6 billion, pre-tax profit$ 9.63 billion (+32%); $1 billion buyback

European bonds, French budget, German IFO and Italian budget negotiations.

France: Moody's sees deficit reaching 5% of GDP in 2027 if budget passes; 4 billion euros for school renovation and higher education reform incl. Parcoursup
German IFO rose to 90.2 in September from 89.9
Italian 10-year yield below 4.5%; spread fell from 169 to 155 bps, largest daily drop since 2020; currently 114 bps
Italian budget about 23 billion euros, expected approval Thursday; plan to seek 5 billion from banks via higher IRES to about 30%
Tobin Tax increase considered; Sugar and Plastic Tax delayed 6 months
EU Commission asked Rome how it will spend 14 billion of safeguard clause for defence and energy
Milan closed higher led by defence and tech; Telefonica down 8% after JP Morgan downgrade
Tajani: opposed to taxing windfall profits but will seek a contribution; Società Editoriale Il Fatto up 18.1%