Inflation and Market Expectations

In September 2026, inflation in Poland rose to 4% year-on-year. The figure went beyond the target range of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Forecasts point to a possible rise to 5%.

In the summer, futures market participants expected monetary policy easing. Now they are building into their models an increase in the NBP's base rate from 3.75% to 4.75%, that is, by a full 1 percentage point at once. Rate decisions will be made at the Monetary Policy Council meetings in November and December.

Key data are presented in the table.

Tax Burden on Banks

In theory, rising interest rates increase banks' interest income and shareholder profits. In practice, however, the government has introduced an additional tax on banks (the so-called windfall tax). The corporate income tax (CIT) rate for banks was raised to 30% in 2026.

In the first eight months of 2026, the net profit of Poland's banking sector fell by almost 12%. It amounted to about 29 billion zloty, despite significant turnover.

Ministers and officials, including Pełczyńska-Nałęcz, publicly claim that banks are earning excessive profits and call for tighter tax pressure.

Stock Market Reaction

The WIG-Banks index fell 3.6% in a single trading day. The cause was a rise in bond yields. The yield on 10-year bonds is at around 6.36%. This reduces the value of the old bond portfolios that banks hold on their balance sheets. High rates also constrain the real economy.

When loans become too expensive, companies stop taking them, since they do not see a way to repay the debt. Borrowers are massively revising their plans.

Shadow Market of Microloans

In October 2026, the Ministry of Justice of Poland recorded growth in the market of predatory lending and usury. According to the agency, a shadow segment of microloans is actively operating in the country, one that bypasses state oversight and anti-usury regulations.

Legal banks reject almost 84% of applicants. The reasons for refusal: an imperfect credit history or lack of liquid assets. The need for money nonetheless persists, and people turn to illegal lenders.

By estimates, the volume of illegal cash turnover amounts to 5.3 billion złoty.

Terms of Shadow Loans

Typical terms look as follows:

• a loan of 1,000 złoty for one month with repayment of 2,000 złoty;
• a penalty for each day of delay;
• penalty charges of up to 73% for borrowers who urgently need funds for medical treatment.

Borrowers who have been refused by banks are forced to turn to illegal lenders. In some cases, they pledge personal property, such as household appliances.

Structure of Bank Expenses and Revenues

Banks' operating expenses have risen by almost 9%. Revenues have increased by only 2.1%. The reasons for the rise in expenses are cited as higher employee salaries, growing administrative burden, and intensifying regulatory pressure.

Experts at major banks acknowledge that if the tightening of monetary policy continues, it will affect not only speculative capital on the stock market. The quality of credit portfolios will also deteriorate.

Official representatives remain optimistic. They point to sufficient capital reserves and the resilience of the banking sector.

Conclusions

Poland's financial system is operating under conflicting pressures. The state needs additional revenue to cover the budget deficit and is increasing the tax burden on banks. Banks pass these costs on to businesses and the population through more expensive loans. Borrowers who are refused legal financing fall into the hands of illegal lenders.

The main risks to this system are borne by the most vulnerable consumers, who pay for changes in financial policy with their money and, in some cases, with their health.