Tom Luongo discusses the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, monetary history, and the political events of 2026 in an interview with Ben Mommy on the podcast Living Your Greatness. Published October 17, 2026.

Background

Tom Luongo is a former research chemist who later worked in the chemical industry as an entry-level analyst. He now writes a financial newsletter, produces a podcast, and works with Tex Swhite on the Gold, Goats 'n Guns project. Luongo states that his understanding of finance and politics developed over roughly 30 years of research. He says he does not claim a complete understanding of any of these subjects.

Luongo spoke from Florida, where he had returned from a trip through Idaho and Utah. He described the interview as a discussion without a set agenda.

The Current Political Landscape

Luongo noted that the U.S. midterm elections were 25 days away. He argued that the election is both the most and least important event in the current political and financial environment.

He states that the executive branch and federal agencies are making structural changes that receive little attention in the headlines. In his view, these changes cannot be stopped. He argues that opposing forces can slow them, obstruct them, or attempt to sabotage them over the long term.

Luongo describes the process as a reversal of the last 112 to 114 years of U.S. drift toward a debt-based empire. He characterizes that model as a form of colonial structure. He argues that the goal is a return to the economic and political model the United States attempted to establish after the Revolution.

He states that the Trump administration's pace of change is "impressive," and that opponents are working equally fast to block it. He describes the situation as confusing, exhilarating, and anxiety-inducing.

Luongo says he has become more serene as events unfold. He compared his current outlook with his 2016 outlook and said he never expected to see the present developments in his lifetime. He describes his position as a privilege.

Centers of Power

Luongo views the world through four major centers of power: the United States, Europe, Russia, and China. He says Africa, South America, Central America, and Southeast Asia are contested regions.

He identifies each center's influence through nuclear capability, military strength, industrial output, and financial power. He states that, in the United States, all four categories apply. He notes that China is the only other power with comparable strength, though he says China faces its own internal challenges.

Luongo argues that the contest among these powers is underway and that he does not know its outcome. He says he has a preferred outcome. He argues that, when each power is analyzed according to its incentives and objectives, its actions are largely predictable.

Generational Perspective and Political Shifts

Luongo argues that most Americans have no direct experience of a government that acts primarily in the interest of its citizens. He notes that most living Americans were born after World War II.

He describes his own shift away from cynicism about the United States, which he says developed after 2015 and the events following 9/11. He argues that a government serving the American public would resemble the current administration's agenda. He states that Trump is not perfect, that he may disagree with some of Trump's actions, and that he does not doubt Trump's sincerity.

Luongo states that no political figure has complete information. He names Trump, Marco Rubio, Vladimir Putin, MI6, and Ursula von der Leyen as examples. He argues that all of them act according to the incentives and interests they are willing to defend.

He traces a continuum of political change that began with Ron Paul's campaigns in 2008 and 2012. He describes Ron Paul's 2008 Republican primary debate performance against Rudy Giuliani as a turning point. He states that the reaction from Hillary Clinton and the Republican establishment revealed a "uniparty" that opposed voices outside the mainstream. In his view, Trump is the successor to that movement, which won an electoral victory in 2016.

Luongo argues that the "neocons" obstructed Trump's first administration. He says a similar pattern appears in the current Senate under John Thune, whom he accuses of blocking nearly all of Trump's initiatives.

The Davos Argument

Luongo describes a philosophical divide between nation-state supporters and what he calls globalists. He argues that globalists "do not believe in nation-states, culture, or people," and that they value only power and its continuation. He states that they are willing to set groups of people against each other to maintain that power.

He says the same group can be referred to as Davos, the City of London high table, Byzantium, or Rome. He argues that the label does not matter. He says the important element is the underlying ethos.

Explaining the Argument to Younger People

Asked how he would explain this argument to a 15-to-17-year-old, Luongo says the answer depends on several assumptions that must be established first. He describes his 20-year-old daughter as an example. He says she is critical of the world she is inheriting and does not agree with all of his views.

Luongo argues that young people today tend to view every actor as a grifter. He states that he held the same view at their age, but he says he did not understand how the monetary system or the flow of money functioned. He says he now regards understanding that flow as central.

He recommends a method with two elements:

1. Recognize that the reasons offered for events may not be accurate.
2. Ask two questions whenever a new narrative is presented:
   • Why do they want us to know this right now?
   • Who benefits from it?

Luongo argues that these questions help a person avoid reacting emotionally to a narrative designed to produce a predictable response. He says those reactions are often engineered to remove a person's capacity for reasoned judgment. He recommends pausing, taking a breath, and asking the two questions before forming a conclusion.

He acknowledges that he has made the same mistake in the past. He argues that accepting error is necessary, because repeated error narrows the range of possible answers.

Scientific Method Applied to Politics and Finance

Luongo credits his training as a chemist with his approach. He describes working as a research scientist and asking how experiments could be improved, why results were not repeatable, and what could be changed. He states that 99% of experiments and hypotheses are wrong and that this is expected.

He contrasts laboratory science with politics and finance. In chemistry, he says, variables can be controlled and results can be tested against hypotheses. He cites the Gibbs free energy equation and the Nernst equation as examples of knowable relationships. In politics and finance, he argues, information is incomplete, and analysts must combine inductive and deductive reasoning while relying partly on judgment.

He describes a case in which a fact, such as a reported plague death in Irkutsk, is paired with a second fact, such as the subsequent response to it. In his view, the combination of facts leads to conclusions that are less predictable than laboratory outcomes.

Jerome Powell and Complex Interpretations

Luongo states that he defended Jerome Powell's decision to raise interest rates. He says he described the effect of a small rate change as the "five basis points to change the world" argument.

He notes that Trump later presented Powell as a villain on the Federal Reserve Board. He says Powell has taken the unusual step of leaving the chairmanship while remaining on the board. Luongo states that former Fed chairs usually leave entirely. He cites Finny in Our Mutual Friend as a comparison for a character who departs quietly.

Luongo argues that Powell can hold several positions at once. He describes Powell as an eighth-generation Virginian and an American sovereigntist who raised interest rates from 2022 to 2024. He says Powell then kept rates high to remove inflation created under the Biden administration. He argues that this policy weakened the Eurodollar system and established the primacy of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) over LIBOR.

He also says Powell may be a Keynesian who disagrees with Trump's direction for the Fed. Luongo offers alternative readings. Powell may be concerned that Trump and Steven Mnuchin will change the Fed's mandate too quickly. Powell may also support the change and accept public criticism because he expects the Fed's reform to be attributed to Mnuchin.

Luongo states that history will determine which reading is correct. He argues that, for many political questions, the underlying truth may not matter.

The Shooting at the Trump Rally and Charlie Kirk's Death

Luongo argues that people often focus on disputed details of events and lose sight of their larger meaning. He cites the assassination of John F. Kennedy as an example of a question that may never be resolved to general satisfaction.

Charlie Kirk

Luongo states that Charlie Kirk was killed for political reasons. He argues that Kirk was motivating young people to support a "American Renaissance" and restoration of American institutions. He says Kirk was becoming an effective political force.

Luongo argues that foreign enemies of the United States wanted to radicalize the same demographic. He says Kirk offered young people a path toward religion, sovereignty, and personal rights. He claims that radicalized communists then appeared in the streets and burned cities. In his view, this disorder benefits those who need the United States to fail.

He states that the identity of the shooter, identified as Kyle Robertson with a .30-06 bolt-action rifle, does not matter to his argument. He says the shooter's identity would not change the broader conclusion. He also says spending extended time on the details of the event is a mistake, because the details were seeded with false flags.

The Butler, Pennsylvania Shooting

Luongo states that the Butler, Pennsylvania, scene was cleaned within 48 hours of the attack on Trump. He argues that someone is covering their tracks and asks why. He says the more useful question is who had an incentive to kill Trump. He answers that the same people had opposed Trump for 10 years.

He describes this approach as a falsifiable framework. He argues that keeping the analysis simple avoids distractions.

Luongo states that he would accept the dominant narrative that Thomas Crooks fired the shot for the purposes of discussion. He describes the shot as 125 yards from a prone position using an AR-15 rifle. He argues that the shot was difficult, and that he himself could not make it. He says the shooter could have had limited training and still made the shot. He adds that the identity of the shooter does not change his broader argument.

Fears About the Constitution and Europe

Luongo states that his greatest fear is that the United States will lose its current struggle. He argues that the U.S. Constitution is unique because it places ultimate authority in "we the people" rather than in a government. He says European parliamentary systems, which he describes as monarchies with ceremonial figureheads, reflect the opposite principle. He states that subjects of a monarchy were not sovereign.

He argues that opponents of the Constitution must destroy the institutions that support it. He says this would usher in a dark age of around 200 years in which Americans would become subjects.

Luongo states that he was once an American patriot, as was his father. He describes his family as second-generation Italian immigrants. He says that after listening to anti-American commentary, especially from European commentators, he began to question the criticism. He mentions Pepe Escobar's description of the United States as an "empire of chaos" as an example.

He states that he has observed a shift in his own view since 2018, 2019, and 2020. He argues that many people who discussed American decline failed to consider the possibility that external powers were pushing the United States into conflicts with Russia and China. He argues that a two-front war against Russia and China would destroy the United States, and that a rival power would benefit from such a war.

Luongo states that he began to break with that orthodoxy in his commentary. He reports that his invitations to podcasts declined sharply, especially after 2020 and after the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel.

Views on Trump's Supporters and Opponents

Luongo argues that the libertarian critique of Trump is "an operation," and that those who deny Trump's base of support are wrong. He cites the Ron Paul revolutions of 2008 and 2012, and Trump's election, as evidence of that base.

He states that personal hostility toward him as a patriot does not change his analysis. He says he has no need for friendships with critics. He argues that anyone who hates America is opposed to him.

Luongo describes his reaction to these disagreements as strong. He says he must control his adrenaline during debates about the issue. He argues that the United States cannot be destroyed without enabling the groups he describes as enemies.

Trump's Personal Change After the Shooting

Asked about white knights and black knights, Luongo argues that people are complicated and that no one is wholly good or wholly bad. He states that he is not perfect and that he has sabotaged his own success. He describes his tendency to speak too freely as a personal flaw.

He states that he has repeatedly called Trump a "crook" and described him as a "property developer from Queens." He says he made these statements during Trump's time out of power and during the end of his first administration. He argues that this description was accurate until the day Trump was shot. He says the shooting changed Trump.

Luongo argues that Trump "finally realized just how big the problem was" and identified the real enemy. He states that the goal after the shooting is not prosecution. He argues that the goal is to identify who took the shot, why the shooter was placed in that position, and who directed it. He says the most effective response is to target those people's wealth and power base.

He states that Trump's approach changed from negotiation during the first administration to a more aggressive posture after the shooting. He describes Trump's earlier willingness to negotiate and says opponents rejected those offers. Luongo says the administration "impeached him twice" during that period.

Luongo states that he would have responded with immediate force if he had been in Trump's position. He says he would have ordered the removal of individuals involved and sent a public message. He describes his own approach as "peace and total war," with nothing in between. He says Trump operates more deliberately than that.

Financial Dimensions of the Conflict

Luongo describes the financial sphere as the central front in the conflict. He says he tracks the U.K.–U.S. 10-year bond spread weekly and presents it to his subscribers as an indicator of the struggle. He argues that the conflict is between the United States and Britain over control of the global financial system.

He states that the old system continues to operate through London. He argues that the United States will prevail in this struggle if it controls the political situation.

Trade History and Monetary Architecture

Luongo sets out a framework for rebuilding American economic independence. He argues that the central constraint on U.S. sovereignty has been its trade relationship with Europe. He identifies three periods:

• Before the Civil War: The United States ran a trade deficit with Europe. He says it exported commodities, Europe exported manufactured goods, and the United States bought those goods back at a profit for Europe.
• After the Civil War to World War II: The United States ran a trade surplus as its industrial base expanded.
• After Bretton Woods: The United States entered a period of offshoring and growth in the offshore dollar system, which he says swamped domestic dollar markets. He says this process ran under the Eurodollar system until 2008, though he says the system's influence continued until 2016.

Luongo argues that restoring American independence requires three changes:

1. Balancing internal trade.
2. Gaining financial control over the value of the currency.
3. Building a private, onshore banking system focused on the U.S. dollar rather than offshore markets.

He argues that the shift from LIBOR to SOFR began this process. He says the groundwork was laid during Powell's tenure and Trump's first term. He describes the raising of interest rates after 2022 as a way to drain the Eurodollar system and force foreign borrowers to seek dollars through U.S. channels.

Stablecoins and the New Dollar Definition

Luongo argues that the next stage is a new definition of the dollar. He describes stablecoins backed by U.S. Treasury bills. He states that these dollar stablecoins would be backed 100% by T-bills rather than by the taxing authority of the U.S. Treasury.

He argues that these changes have already reshaped the executive branch, federal agency contracting, and the flow of money through government programs. He states that a future Democratic administration would need roughly 30 years to reverse those changes.

Luongo describes the next step as altering geopolitical choke points. He argues that once the offshore dollar system has been constrained, the focus shifts to the networks that depend on it. He lists illicit drug trafficking, human trafficking, oil trade outside the dollar system, and shadow banking.

He argues that the public focuses on large U.S. banks such as JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which he describes as "horrible." He states that the larger problem lies in smaller and less visible institutions. He says a person could register with the British government, obtain a SWIFT code, and gain access to global payment networks. He cites "10,000 banks in St. Barts" as an example. He argues that the shadow banking system is larger than the regulated banking system and has operated this way for about 20 years.

Japan, the Yen Carry Trade, and Iran

Luongo states that the yen carry trade has been central to global leverage. He argues that the Japanese government has been liberated politically. He cites the February election, after which Takaichi took office with support from a small sovereigntist party. He states that this arrangement allows her to act without parliamentary sabotage.

He argues that Japan can now normalize monetary policy and end the yen carry trade. He says the carry trade has been financed by oil flows from the Gulf that were pledged as collateral. He states that this financing was used to purchase Treasuries and to manage the yield curve. He describes that financing as a source of yield-curve control under Christine Lagarde, which he says has operated since July 2022. He identifies the Transmission Protection Instrument as a tool in this process.

Luongo argues that Trump attacked Iran because this oil-based financing was central to the carry trade. He states that the trade is now being unwound.

He describes Japan as holding leverage over major European governments. He argues that the Swiss franc carry trade has also been used to keep asset prices high, but Switzerland lacks Japan's fiscal capacity. He cites Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy and argues that its tax system can fund carry trades on a larger scale.

Luongo states that carry trades depend on the productive capacity of the country whose currency is borrowed. He cites Sri Lanka and Venezuela as examples of countries whose currencies cannot support such trades.

The Historical Role of Britain and Japan

Luongo recommends Richard Werner's work on Japan's development. He says the work should be read with the anti-American content removed. He argues that Japan's post-war development was a British-American project rather than an exclusively American one.

He identifies Britain's involvement in global affairs as a central issue, which he describes as a third rail of geopolitics. He argues that U.S. adoption of British tax policy, central banking policy, trade policy, and foreign policy began under Woodrow Wilson, who was elected in 1912.

The Carry Trade Unwind and the Bank of England

Luongo argues that the carry trade is being unwound as the Bank of Japan raises rates. He says the unwind is squeezing carry trades against German bonds, Italian BTPs, French OATs, and U.K. gilts. He identifies Japanese government bonds and U.S. Treasuries as the largest components.

He argues that central banks holding Treasuries financed by cheap yen have an incentive to keep long-term U.S. yields elevated. He claims that the Bank of England and its subsidiaries in the Cayman Islands, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the British Virgin Islands are among the largest Treasury holders. He states that these holdings are very large, and that the Bank of England has no other significant reserves, including gold. He argues that disposing of these holdings would be a costly move for Britain.

Luongo states that the U.S. dollar index is breaking out to the upside on a quarterly basis and expects it to reach 115. He says he does not expect it to fall to 90.

Debt, Deficits, and Assets

Luongo states that the United States has a debt-to-GDP ratio of 107%. He argues that this debt can be addressed by mobilizing assets and by repricing collateral. He cites Alaska as an asset that may be worth $100 trillion. He also cites copper deposits near Boise, Idaho, and in the Rocky Mountains, which he describes as among the largest copper deposits known in the world.

He argues that the United States holds significant mineral wealth that was written to zero because of environmental regulation. He attributes this policy to Obama and Clinton. He also names the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, including Pelosi's faction, as working with China. Luongo says he agrees with that point.

Deficit Projections

Luongo presents a discussion with Rock about federal finances. He states that receipts rose 4% year over year after Trump and Bessemer began the current process, and outlays rose 3%. He argues that this trend is positive.

He cites a projected deficit trajectory:

Luongo states that a 5% annual reduction in waste, fraud, and abuse, including Medicare and other entitlements, supports this trajectory. He argues that GDP growth of 4% to 6% per year is possible.

He states that he is buying 5.75% yields on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. He argues that the United States will not reach 7% growth without a catastrophic unwinding of European Treasury positions.

Dollar Liabilities and Debt Scale

Luongo states that the world economy is priced on the expectation of a $1.7 trillion U.S. deficit. He argues that a declining deficit should lower interest rates over time. He says that, in the short term, rising yields reflect foreign holders of Treasuries selling them to obtain dollars. He attributes this demand to a tighter Eurodollar system.

He cites $117 trillion in offshore dollar liabilities that require servicing. He identifies Brent Johnson as the leading expert on this subject and says he will interview Johnson on his podcast.

He argues that the country's total debt requiring resolution is approximately $9.5 to$10 trillion. He states that much of the remaining debt is held domestically. He argues that some long-term bonds will move into T-bills, which will still count as debt on the balance sheet.

Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

Luongo argues that all collateral assets must be repriced to address the debt. He states that the argument that the United States wants a lower gold price, to avoid revealing its financial weakness, was valid in 1995, 2005, or 2010, but is not valid today.

He argues that the United States is moving to a new financial and production model. He describes the current model as debt-based capitalism that runs through banks and central banks, with the central bank as the only issuer of new monetary tokens.

Historical Analysis

Luongo presents a historical argument centered on the price of gold. He says Gordon Brown sold Britain's gold reserves, and that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) has since pushed for a lower gold price.

He describes Winston Churchill's actions after World War I. He states that Churchill returned to the Chancellor of the Exchequer post in 1925. He argues that Churchill re-pegged the British pound to its pre-war gold price of $20.67 per ounce. He says this caused deflation across Europe and a sovereign debt crisis.

He cites Martin Armstrong's argument that capital flowed into the United States during this period. He states that the capital helped build the industrial base used in World War II.

Luongo argues that after World War II, the United States again pegged gold at $35 per ounce, the level set by Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933. He states that the United States needed to inflate the dollar to fund the Marshall Plan and rebuild Europe and Japan. He argues that the United States lost 15,000 tons of gold between 1952 and 1971, when Nixon closed the gold window. He says most of that gold went to Germany and France. He argues that the European Union's economic foundations rely on that transfer.

He states that LIBOR became the index rate for global debt by 1984 through the Eurodollar system. He argues that the United States lost control of its monetary policy after Bretton Woods, even though it remained the world's leading power. He says a country cannot be a hyperpower if it does not control its currency's value or its borrowing rate.

He describes August 15, 1971, as the day Nixon halted the outflow of gold. He states that Nixon's reward was impeachment, which he describes as resignation, and the Watergate investigation. He identifies Woodward and Bernstein as writers who worked for CIA assets.

Luongo argues that Kissinger and the British created an oil shock in the 1970s, which led to the worst inflation since the reconstruction period. He states that the United States issued Swiss franc bonds in 1979 under the Carter administration. He then cites the Plaza Accord as an effort to rig global currencies.

He argues that the 2008 financial crisis was engineered to remove Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from American control. He says these institutions made markets in mortgage-backed securities and controlled the long end of the U.S. yield curve. He states that Britain needed control of both the short and long ends of the yield curve. He argues that this control enabled the move to the zero bound and to modern monetary theory (MMT) with inflationary policy.

He states that the purchasing power of all currencies has declined. He argues that wealth inequality results from structural one-way trade and that the holders of financial assets hold most of the world's wealth.

Price Targets

Luongo states that gold is headed to $20,000 per ounce and that Bitcoin will reach at least$1 million. He describes these targets as expectations for the coming period, not short-term forecasts.

He argues that repricing could change the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve. He cites an illustrative calculation in which the Fed holds $6 trillion in gold at a$5,000 per ounce price, and says a purchase of one million Bitcoin at $1 million per coin would add$1 trillion in value.

Luongo argues that the people seeking to lower gold prices to $4,000 or$2,500 are trying to create a deflationary environment. He says this would allow them to default on debt and then reintroduce a cleaner balance sheet. He describes the strategy as repeated across World War I and World War II, with Germany or Russia as targets in each case. He states that Russia was the target in both conflicts, along with the Ottomans in World War I. He argues that Hitler attacked Britain after recognizing its role in the conflict. He adds that he does not excuse Hitler's actions.

Luongo states that the current strategy is failing. He argues that Russia and China are aligned with Trump's plan to raise the price of collateral assets. He argues that China, Russia, and the United States together are stronger than Europe and the remnants of the Anglo-Dutch financial system.

He states that China was built up as a potential successor to the United States and was then expected to be stripped of capital. He argues that Xi Jinping, Putin, and Trump are now aligned in opposition to that plan.

He argues that the remaining option is to inflate a different asset. He says silver should be watched closely.

Trump's Response

Luongo says Trump has told him the house "doesn't win every bet, but the house plays all the odds." He argues that Trump would buy back 2.5% 30-year bonds at 60 cents on the dollar if rates rose. He says Trump would retire those bonds and remove future liabilities from the balance sheet.

He states that Judy Shelton is expected to implement gold-backed policy. He says the United States mines more than 300 tons of gold per year and has been selling much of it to the LBMA. He states that this practice will stop.

Canada, Europe, and Domestic Risks

Luongo argues that Mark Carney chose a trade conflict with the United States so that he could approach Europe and seek help from China. He states that China rejected that request and told him to pivot to Europe. He argues that Europe needs collateral in the form of oil, gold, silver, and uranium. He states that Europe cannot obtain those resources from Russia.

He argues that Europe is building a domestic military force to suppress internal unrest it expects by 2029 to 2030. He predicts that European governments will default on their debt and face another sovereign debt crisis. He argues that Carney is clearing title to Canadian land so that the same financial groups can acquire it when Trump moves to bring Canada into the United States. He states that Canada is "not long for this life in the sub-arctic."

Luongo states that the more Carney confronts the United States, the more he acts like Zelenskyy in Ukraine. He argues that this behavior increases the likelihood of that outcome.

He identifies two significant risks: radicalization of American youth and radicalization of Democratic state governments. He states that the next three years will be turbulent but expects them to bring major changes.

He describes state-level taxes in heavily Democratic states as evidence of the broader problem. He says "blue states are another way of saying European colonies."

Luongo says the CIA is in open conflict with the administration and that the deep state retains power. He argues that these groups could attempt to damage oil refineries or power grids to block the transition. He states that Trump keeps offering peace, and the opposing groups keep rejecting it.

Closing Remarks

Asked about his main message, Luongo says people should not accept that they lack power. He argues that many actions are designed to demoralize citizens and remove their agency. He encourages listeners to build something meaningful and states that the opportunity is available.

He describes his past belief in societal collapse. He says he raised goats and built a house in Florida with his own hands because he expected collapse. He says he was wrong, or at least premature.

He argues that the world does not collapse because most people do not want it to collapse. He says the people who benefit from collapse should be identified and their data flows studied. He recommends assuming that such people exist, then choosing a response.

Luongo states that he discussed market stability with Dave Collum, whom he describes as more pessimistic than himself. He says markets do not collapse because too many people have incentives to prevent collapse. He argues that the mathematical models predicting collapse do not account for this effect.

He notes that 50 years ago, a conversation like this one between Montreal and Florida would have seemed unlikely. He says that he has seen many opportunities and that the goal of his opponents is to "chop off all the tall poppies" and keep people distracted, anxious, angry, and afraid.

Asked for final words, Luongo says: "We're going to win because we have to win." He adds that people should not accept claims that they cannot win. He recommends being ungovernable. He concludes: "Don't be evil, be ungovernable. Go out there, build something great."