October 22, 2026

Economist Artur Bartoszewicz believes that Poland's macroeconomic indicators create a false impression of development. In his assessment, growth is based on borrowing, government spending on defense, and dependence on external factors. The main theses of his position are set out below.

Growth Model: "Squeezing the Lemon"

An expert argues that Poland's economic growth model cannot be called exhausted, because it was never sustainable. In his words, the economy was built on a "squeezing the lemon" model. Foreign investors gained access to cheap labor, cheap energy, cheap resources, and cheap assets.

Bartoszewicz notes that the rules were applied unevenly. In his view, foreign companies enjoy a de facto privileged status, while Polish entrepreneurs are in a less favorable position.

He also states that a long-term growth strategy was never developed. It was not determined at what stage or with what instruments the state should act.

Foreign Capital and Arbitration

According to the expert, a foreign company in a conflict with the state can obtain compensation from Poland through international courts and arbitration tribunals. In this case, Poland bears significant costs, which he estimates at billions, including under arbitral awards.

According to him, a Polish entrepreneur who enters into a conflict with the state does not have comparable means of defense. Court proceedings last 20–25 years. The entrepreneur often loses assets and, in some cases, ends up in prison or under arrest before a decision is rendered.

The Role of European Transfers and Debt

Bartoszewicz estimates the contribution of EU funds to Poland's economic growth at 1–1.5% per year. According to his calculations, 98–99% of economic growth is generated within the country through its own taxes, labor, and development.

He points to the growth of public debt. According to data for the first quarter of 2026, official debt amounted to 2 trillion zloty. Including unofficial obligations, by his estimate, the sum reaches about 3 trillion zloty.

The expert holds political parties, finance ministers, and prime ministers who held office during this period responsible for the growth of debt. He believes that the growth of debt is evidence of a degradation of development, rather than of growth.

In his view, the capacity to keep increasing debt is running out. Poland is approaching a limit at which creditors will stop providing financing. Bartoszewicz compares the situation with Greece, Spain, and Portugal. These countries experienced a collapse of public finances and an economic downturn, and to this day have not returned to the growth rates needed to recover their losses.

Defense Spending and the Structure of GDP

An expert argues that the official growth rate of about 3% is mainly driven by government spending. He points to the GDP formula: consumption, investment, net exports, and government spending.

According to him, defense spending has been the key factor behind growth. Purchases, which he describes as non-productive, go to foreign industry and do not contribute to the development of Polish territory. He considers politicians' claims that these purchases stimulate domestic industry to be incorrect.

Bartoszewicz argues that Polish enterprises lack the necessary capacity. In his assessment, the causes are a shortage of skilled personnel, high electricity prices, a lack of technology, and the elimination of industrial sectors over the past 20–30 years. Poland once built tanks, ships, and aircraft, including in cooperation with the Soviet Union. Today, in his words, the country can only assemble tanks under license or repair them under the customer's supervision.

He cites the example of Turkey, whose economy, in his words, is smaller in GDP terms but which is carrying out large industrial projects.

Household Realities and Housing Market Risks

An expert describes the situation of households as deteriorating, despite macroeconomic indicators. According to him, heating a home costs 8–10 thousand. Retired couples, in his words, cannot pay these expenses from their pensions. They cut back on consumption, go without buying electricity, and do not carry out repairs.

Bartoszewicz believes that housing construction creates the appearance of growth. Investors put money into housing based on the current price per square meter and expect it to keep rising. However, demographics are worsening, and the financial stability of households is declining. In his forecast, the housing and mortgage bubble in Poland will burst sooner or later, because there will be more properties than buyers able to purchase and maintain them.

EU Regulatory Pressure

An expert critically assesses the European Commission's new packaging requirements for exporters. According to him, micro-entrepreneurs and small businesses are abandoning exports because they must obtain certification registered in the 27 EU countries. Trading with these countries requires agents or representatives, which, in his assessment, creates excessively costly mechanisms.

Absence of Strategic Goals

Bartoszewicz argues that Poland has never had a long-term economic strategy. He calls plans, including the Balcerowicz Plan, artificial solutions that were presented as a positive narrative and weakened the state.

After the transformation, the country set two goals: accession to NATO and to the European Union. In his words, after these goals were achieved, no new strategic objectives emerged. He considers arguments about catch-up development to be unsound, since some countries, including Portugal and Spain, slowed their growth rates during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2007–2009 financial crisis, which allowed Poland to catch up with them.

The expert criticizes Poland's participation in the G20. In his assessment, participation does not mean real influence over decisions, and the country acts as an object rather than a subject.

He notes that the United States, Russia, China, Turkey, and Ukraine have clear strategic goals. Bartoszewicz calls for the creation of Poland's own economic strategy based on economic independence, its own resources, raw materials, and technological potential.

He also criticizes the system of scientific publishing. In his words, Poland pays publishers who publish the scientific articles of Polish scientists and acquire the rights to research data and results. In his view, knowledge is created for other countries, not for Poland.

Strategy Directions

The expert identifies areas that, in his view, should form the basis of the strategy:

• military independence;
• energy independence;
• an economy based on artificial intelligence;
• medical solutions and a disease prevention system;
• space programs.

In his assessment, these areas are not being discussed in Poland. He notes that for about 30–40 years there has been debate about building a nuclear power plant, but the project has still not been implemented. He considers this absurd for countries with nuclear power.

First Steps

According to Bartoszewicz, the first step should be recognizing the development of the domestic economy as the main goal. Poland should not purchase abroad products that it can produce itself. Resources and raw materials should be used within the country. He cites India and China as examples, which build their energy and heating systems on their own resources. According to him, the coal and steel industries provide these countries with economic independence.

The second step is investment in human and social capital. By social capital, the expert means trust between participants in economic relations. According to him, trust arises when there is effective protection against dishonest partners. To achieve this, court proceedings must be accelerated. He proposes organizing the process so that hearings take place daily until a decision is issued, without delays lasting several months. Bartoszewicz believes that swift punishment for fraud builds trust.

The third step is a foreign policy position that defends national interests. According to him, Poland should stop unnecessary purchases abroad and develop its own defense.

Bartoszewicz also points to the need to invest in personnel. According to his data, thousands of doctors are being trained in Poland, and many of them leave for abroad because they cannot obtain specialization within the country. He calls for opening mechanisms for specialization. Engineers, according to him, cannot find work because advanced technology sectors are not developing.

The expert cites the example of the pharmaceutical industry. According to his data, the funding article for developing the domestic pharmaceutical industry was removed from the KPO program. He points out that this industry offers high salaries, access to advanced technologies, and creates effects for related industries.

Bartoszewicz proposes planning investments strategically. In his opinion, developing pharmaceuticals requires 600 million or 1 billion złoty. For developing artificial intelligence, according to him, the 20 million złoty allocated to the Polish Research Institute is insufficient, as is the 40 million złoty previously allocated under the IDAS program. In his assessment, billions are required.

He also points to the need to prepare society, personnel, and public administration for the mass implementation of artificial intelligence. According to him, such preparation should be completed within five years.

Bartoszewicz highlights water resources as a strategic factor. According to him, the development of artificial intelligence is impossible without water. He critically assesses the activity of the organization "Wody Polskie," arguing that its work is not noticeable. In his opinion, irrigation and water protection systems are needed that retain water within the country rather than allowing it to flow through Polish territory.

The expert concludes with the thesis about the connection between resources, energy, and competitiveness. According to him, Poland will become competitive thanks to its legal system, personnel, raw materials, and energy potential.